The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Mainz 05 are favourites: 69% to win against 15%. Attack against defence: Mainz 05 should create more, 2.54 expected goals a match against 1.56. Read the table with care: Elversberg have taken 3.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elversberg | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3.4 | +3.6 | 1.56 | 2.46 |
| Mainz 05 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 8.0 | −1.0 | 2.63 | 1.55 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →