The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
1. FC Köln are favourites: 67% to win against 15%. Attack against defence: 1. FC Köln should create more, 2.06 expected goals a match against 1.57. Read the table with care: Elversberg have taken 3.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 11 | 6 | 7 | 8.7 | −1.7 | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| Elversberg | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 | 1.31 | 2.21 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →