The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Bayern Munich: 51% against 23%. Attack against defence: Bayern Munich should create more, 2.17 expected goals a match against 1.46.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 3 | 4 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | 2.16 | 1.01 |
| Bayern Munich | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11.0 | −1.0 | 3.33 | 0.75 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →