The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Freiburg are favourites: 62% to win against 19%. Attack against defence: Freiburg should create more, 1.96 expected goals a match against 1.70.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 3 | 6 | 13 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 1.91 | 1.04 |
| RB Leipzig | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10.5 | −1.5 | 2.36 | 2.00 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →