Freiburg vs RB Leipzig: match prediction

Freiburg

VS

RB Leipzig

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

A slight edge to Freiburg: 47% against 30%. Attack against defence: level, 1.75 and 1.85 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Freiburg have taken 2.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Freiburg	3	9	19	16.8	+2.2	1.79	1.19
RB Leipzig	4	9	18	17.4	+0.6	2.52	1.70

Recent matches

Freiburg — Union Berlin 2:0Augsburg — Freiburg 1:2Freiburg — Bayern Munich 1:3Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg 2:1Freiburg — Schalke 04 2:1

RasenBallsport Leipzig — Augsburg 5:2Schalke 04 — RasenBallsport Leipzig 0:2RasenBallsport Leipzig — Elversberg 4:0Bayern Munich — RasenBallsport Leipzig 6:1RasenBallsport Leipzig — Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions