The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Freiburg are favourites: 93% to win against 2%. Attack against defence: Freiburg should create more, 2.69 expected goals a match against 1.12.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 3 | 4 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | 2.16 | 1.01 |
| Union Berlin | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2.2 | −1.2 | 1.23 | 3.21 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →