The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Hoffenheim are favourites: 64% to win against 21%. Attack against defence: Hoffenheim should create more, 2.41 expected goals a match against 2.08. Hoffenheim are 3.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 14 | 6 | 6 | 9.0 | −3.0 | 1.97 | 1.77 |
| Augsburg | 10 | 6 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | 2.38 | 2.85 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →