Hoffenheim vs Augsburg: match prediction

Hoffenheim

VS

Augsburg

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

Hoffenheim are favourites: 61% to win against 22%. Attack against defence: Hoffenheim should create more, 2.18 expected goals a match against 1.90. Hoffenheim are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Hoffenheim	9	9	12	14.3	−2.3	2.01	1.66
Augsburg	14	9	9	10.9	−1.9	2.15	2.35

Recent matches

Hoffenheim — Schalke 04 2:1Werder Bremen — Hoffenheim 2:0Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen 3:0Borussia M.Gladbach — Hoffenheim 1:2Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV 2:3

RasenBallsport Leipzig — Augsburg 5:2Augsburg — Freiburg 1:2Augsburg — Union Berlin 1:1Elversberg — Augsburg 4:3Augsburg — Bayern Munich 2:2

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions