RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund: match prediction

RB Leipzig

VS

Borussia Dortmund

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

A slight edge to RB Leipzig: 50% against 28%. Attack against defence: RB Leipzig should create more, 1.92 expected goals a match against 1.75. Read the table with care: Borussia Dortmund have taken 5.3 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
RB Leipzig	4	9	18	17.4	+0.6	2.52	1.70
Borussia Dortmund	2	9	21	15.7	+5.3	1.79	1.32

Recent matches

RasenBallsport Leipzig — Augsburg 5:2Schalke 04 — RasenBallsport Leipzig 0:2RasenBallsport Leipzig — Elversberg 4:0Bayern Munich — RasenBallsport Leipzig 6:1RasenBallsport Leipzig — Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0

Borussia Dortmund — Elversberg 2:1Bayern Munich — Borussia Dortmund 2:2Borussia Dortmund — Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund 0:0Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen 2:2

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions