Union Berlin vs Hoffenheim: match prediction

Union Berlin

VS

Hoffenheim

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

Hoffenheim are favourites: 63% to win against 17%. Attack against defence: Hoffenheim should create more, 2.11 expected goals a match against 1.33. Hoffenheim are 2.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Union Berlin	16	9	7	7.2	−0.2	1.01	2.21
Hoffenheim	9	9	12	14.3	−2.3	2.01	1.66

Recent matches

Freiburg — Union Berlin 2:0Union Berlin — FC Cologne 1:1Augsburg — Union Berlin 1:1Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund 0:0Union Berlin — Elversberg 1:0

Hoffenheim — Schalke 04 2:1Werder Bremen — Hoffenheim 2:0Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen 3:0Borussia M.Gladbach — Hoffenheim 1:2Hoffenheim — Hamburger SV 2:3

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions