Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen: match prediction

Werder Bremen

VS

Bayer Leverkusen

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

What to expect

No clear favourite: 38% home, 24% draw, 39% away. Attack against defence: Bayer Leverkusen should create more, 1.83 expected goals a match against 1.61. Read the table with care: Werder Bremen have taken 2.6 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

Club	Place	P	Points	xPTS	Δ	xG/match	xGA/match
Werder Bremen	6	9	15	12.4	+2.6	1.59	1.56
Bayer Leverkusen	5	9	16	15.3	+0.7	2.10	1.63

Recent matches

VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen 1:0Werder Bremen — Hoffenheim 2:0Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen 2:3Werder Bremen — Paderborn 2:2Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen 2:2

FC Cologne — Bayer Leverkusen 1:2Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart 2:4Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen 3:0Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg 2:1Mainz 05 — Bayer Leverkusen 3:4

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions