The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Werder Bremen are favourites: 57% to win against 18%. Attack against defence: Werder Bremen should create more, 1.77 expected goals a match against 1.39. Read the table with care: Werder Bremen have taken 3.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | 1.23 | 1.79 |
| Hamburger SV | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 0.99 | 2.31 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →