The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Bournemouth: 52% against 27%. Attack against defence: level, 1.76 and 1.71 expected goals a match. Bournemouth are 5.9 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 13 | 8 | 9 | 14.9 | −5.9 | 2.09 | 1.16 |
| Brighton | 3 | 8 | 16 | 15.2 | +0.8 | 2.26 | 1.43 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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