The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Arsenal: 47% against 29%. Attack against defence: Arsenal should create more, 1.74 expected goals a match against 1.40. Read the table with care: Arsenal have taken 5.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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