Pitch Radar

Brentford vs Everton: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 11 · 21 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win50%Brentford
Draw22%
Away win28%Everton
Expected points, home1.72

What to expect

A slight edge to Brentford: 50% against 28%. Attack against defence: level, 1.71 and 1.61 expected goals a match.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Brentford46109.4+0.61.971.55
Everton8597.6+1.41.671.44

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →