Pitch Radar

Brighton vs Brentford: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 10 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win53%Brighton
Draw18%
Away win29%Brentford
Expected points, home1.77

What to expect

A slight edge to Brighton: 53% against 29%. Attack against defence: level, 2.04 and 1.92 expected goals a match.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Brighton35109.2+0.82.581.73
Brentford4598.4+0.62.101.50

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →