Pitch Radar

Hull City vs Brighton: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 11 · 21 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win22%Hull City
Draw20%
Away win57%Brighton
Expected points, home0.87

What to expect

Brighton are favourites: 57% to win against 22%. Attack against defence: Brighton should create more, 2.04 expected goals a match against 1.40. Read the table with care: Hull City have taken 3.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Hull City8696.0+3.01.211.66
Brighton361311.2+1.82.421.58

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →