The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Manchester City are favourites: 67% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Manchester City should create more, 1.86 expected goals a match against 1.30. Read the table with care: Manchester City have taken 4.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 1 | 8 | 21 | 17.0 | +4.0 | 2.37 | 1.24 |
| Leeds United | 7 | 8 | 11 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 1.36 | 1.35 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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