The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Manchester United: 47% against 31%. Attack against defence: level, 1.67 and 1.67 expected goals a match. Manchester United are 3.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 13 | 7 | 7 | 10.0 | −3.0 | 1.79 | 1.52 |
| Brentford | 6 | 7 | 10 | 10.2 | −0.2 | 1.81 | 1.55 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.