The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Nottingham Forest are favourites: 64% to win against 17%. Attack against defence: Nottingham Forest should create more, 1.83 expected goals a match against 1.44. Nottingham Forest are 7.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 18 | 7 | 5 | 12.6 | −7.6 | 1.86 | 1.17 |
| Chelsea | 4 | 7 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6 | 1.70 | 1.79 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.