Pitch Radar

Le Mans vs Lille: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 12 · 28 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win35%Le Mans
Draw22%
Away win43%Lille
Expected points, home1.26

What to expect

No clear favourite: 35% home, 22% draw, 43% away. Attack against defence: Lille should create more, 1.93 expected goals a match against 1.57. Read the table with care: Lille have taken 5.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Le Mans15765.9+0.11.522.39
Lille26137.9+5.11.461.62

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →