The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 39% home, 23% draw, 39% away. Attack against defence: Paris Saint-Germain should create more, 1.84 expected goals a match against 1.58. Toulouse are 4.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 11 | 8 | 10 | 14.4 | −4.5 | 1.82 | 1.31 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 8 | 17 | 15.9 | +1.1 | 2.38 | 1.35 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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