Pitch Radar

CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 12 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win26%CSKA Moscow
Draw26%
Away win48%Spartak Moscow
Expected points, home1.05

What to expect

A slight edge to Spartak Moscow: 48% against 26%. Attack against defence: Spartak Moscow should create more, 1.46 expected goals a match against 1.17. Read the table with care: CSKA Moscow have taken 3.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
CSKA Moscow491915.9+3.11.651.19
Spartak Moscow291918.3+0.71.720.68

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →