The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Spartak Moscow: 48% against 26%. Attack against defence: Spartak Moscow should create more, 1.46 expected goals a match against 1.17. Read the table with care: CSKA Moscow have taken 3.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow | 4 | 9 | 19 | 15.9 | +3.1 | 1.65 | 1.19 |
| Spartak Moscow | 2 | 9 | 19 | 18.3 | +0.7 | 1.72 | 0.68 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.