The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Spartak Moscow: 49% against 26%. Attack against defence: Spartak Moscow should create more, 1.48 expected goals a match against 1.11. Dynamo Makhachkala are 2.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 6 | 10 | 12 | 14.2 | −2.2 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Spartak Moscow | 3 | 10 | 20 | 18.5 | +1.5 | 1.59 | 0.85 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.