The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 38% home, 29% draw, 33% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.14 and 1.27 expected goals a match. Orenburg are 4.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13.3 | −4.3 | 1.08 | 0.89 |
| CSKA Moscow | 4 | 9 | 19 | 15.9 | +3.1 | 1.65 | 1.19 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.