The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 32% home, 33% draw, 35% away. Attack against defence: Orenburg should create more, 1.12 expected goals a match against 0.97. Orenburg are 4.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11.5 | −1.5 | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| Orenburg | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13.3 | −4.3 | 1.08 | 0.89 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.