The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 38% home, 30% draw, 32% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.11 and 1.17 expected goals a match. Orenburg are 4.3 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12.6 | −1.6 | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Orenburg | 11 | 9 | 9 | 13.3 | −4.3 | 1.08 | 0.89 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.