Pitch Radar

Spartak Moscow vs Akron Tolyatti: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 14 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win76%Spartak Moscow
Draw17%
Away win7%Akron Tolyatti
Expected points, home2.44

What to expect

Spartak Moscow are favourites: 76% to win against 7%. Attack against defence: Spartak Moscow should create more, 1.53 expected goals a match against 0.82. Akron Tolyatti are 1.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Spartak Moscow291918.3+0.71.720.68
Akron Tolyatti13989.7−1.70.971.34

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →