Pitch Radar

Spartak Moscow vs Rubin Kazan: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 11 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win75%Spartak Moscow
Draw18%
Away win8%Rubin Kazan
Expected points, home2.42

What to expect

Spartak Moscow are favourites: 75% to win against 8%. Attack against defence: Spartak Moscow should create more, 1.52 expected goals a match against 0.83. Read the table with care: Rubin Kazan have taken 1.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Spartak Moscow291918.3+0.71.720.68
Rubin Kazan691210.3+1.70.991.31

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →