Pitch Radar

AC Milan vs Inter: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 10 · 1 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win39%AC Milan
Draw21%
Away win40%Inter
Expected points, home1.38

What to expect

No clear favourite: 39% home, 21% draw, 40% away. Attack against defence: Inter should create more, 2.15 expected goals a match against 1.71. Read the table with care: AC Milan have taken 2.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
AC Milan55118.9+2.11.941.18
Inter251311.1+1.93.111.49

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →