The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Fiorentina are favourites: 69% to win against 12%. Attack against defence: Fiorentina should create more, 1.83 expected goals a match against 1.35. Read the table with care: Atalanta have taken 3.3 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | 17 | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | −2.3 | 1.53 | 1.93 |
| Atalanta | 11 | 5 | 6 | 2.7 | +3.3 | 0.77 | 2.14 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.