Pitch Radar

Inter vs Parma: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 6 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win92%Inter
Draw6%
Away win2%Parma
Expected points, home2.81

What to expect

Inter are favourites: 92% to win against 2%. Attack against defence: Inter should create more, 2.54 expected goals a match against 1.17. Read the table with care: Inter have taken 1.9 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Inter251311.1+1.93.111.49
Parma15543.4+0.60.851.96

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →