The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln | 4:1 | 3.52 : 2.86 | deserved |
| Werder Bremen — RB Leipzig | 3:1 | 0.85 : 1.58 | got lucky |
| Bayer Leverkusen — Union Berlin | 4:0 | 3.39 : 0.25 | deserved |
| Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund | 2:3 | 2.17 : 2.02 | even by chances |
| Paderborn — Freiburg | 0:1 | 0.73 : 1.17 | even by chances |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach — Elversberg | 3:4 | 2.89 : 3.03 | even by chances |
| Schalke 04 — Bayern Munich | 0:0 | 0.25 : 2.05 | dropped points |
| Hamburger SV — Mainz 05 | 0:5 | 0.26 : 3.28 | deserved |
| Eintracht Frankfurt — Augsburg | 1:4 | 2.51 : 1.45 | got lucky |
VfB Stuttgart — 3.52 xG. Opponent: 1. FC Köln. Result: a win.
Bayern Munich: 2.05 xG against the opponent's 0.25. Result: a draw.