The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town — Liverpool | 0:2 | 0.60 : 0.74 | even by chances |
| Newcastle United — Bournemouth | 2:2 | 0.77 : 1.64 | dropped points |
| Manchester City — Coventry City | 1:0 | 2.19 : 1.49 | deserved |
| Nottingham Forest — Tottenham Hotspur | 0:0 | 0.83 : 1.48 | dropped points |
| Fulham — Crystal Palace | 2:3 | 2.88 : 2.36 | got lucky |
| Brentford — Sunderland | 1:1 | 1.59 : 2.15 | dropped points |
| Brighton — Leeds United | 1:1 | 2.22 : 2.23 | even by chances |
| Hull City — Aston Villa | 0:0 | 0.81 : 1.64 | dropped points |
| Everton — Manchester United | 2:2 | 1.06 : 0.87 | even by chances |
| Arsenal — Chelsea | 2:1 | 2.81 : 0.43 | deserved |
Fulham — 2.88 xG. Opponent: Crystal Palace. Result: a defeat.
Fulham: 2.88 xG against the opponent's 2.36. Result: a defeat.