The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town — Nottingham Forest | 1:1 | 0.86 : 2.76 | dropped points |
| Aston Villa — Manchester City | 2:1 | 0.65 : 2.29 | got lucky |
| Coventry City — Fulham | 0:1 | 0.40 : 0.57 | even by chances |
| Arsenal — Everton | 2:0 | 2.29 : 0.72 | deserved |
| Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur | 0:2 | 0.46 : 0.98 | deserved |
| Liverpool — Brighton | 2:0 | 1.28 : 1.31 | even by chances |
| Manchester United — Bournemouth | 0:3 | 0.84 : 2.56 | deserved |
| Crystal Palace — Newcastle United | 0:2 | 2.03 : 1.30 | got lucky |
| Hull City — Brentford | 1:1 | 1.94 : 1.71 | even by chances |
| Sunderland — Leeds United | 0:0 | 1.02 : 1.07 | even by chances |
Nottingham Forest — 2.76 xG. Opponent: Ipswich Town. Result: a draw.
Manchester City: 2.29 xG against the opponent's 0.65. Result: a defeat.