The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 17 | 18 |
| Points | 7 | 6 |
| xPTS | 8.2 | 15.2 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −1.2 | −9.2 |
| xG per match | 1.56 | 1.97 |
| xGA per match | 2.17 | 1.13 |
| Scored | 9 | 6 |
| Conceded | 19 | 10 |
By quality of play Nottingham Forest is ahead: 15.2 xPTS against 8.2. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Crystal Palace: −1.2, Nottingham Forest: −9.2.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Crystal Palace — 6.0, Nottingham Forest — 8.5.