The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Nottingham Forest | Coventry City | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 18 | 19 |
| Points | 6 | 6 |
| xPTS | 15.2 | 8.1 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −9.2 | −2.1 |
| xG per match | 1.97 | 1.02 |
| xGA per match | 1.13 | 1.54 |
| Scored | 6 | 6 |
| Conceded | 10 | 15 |
By quality of play Nottingham Forest is ahead: 15.2 xPTS against 8.1. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Nottingham Forest: −9.2, Coventry City: −2.1.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Nottingham Forest — 8.5, Coventry City — 6.4.