The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Bayern Munich are favourites: 90% to win against 4%. Attack against defence: Bayern Munich should create more, 2.88 expected goals a match against 1.62. Bayern Munich are 2.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13.7 | −2.7 | 3.58 | 0.99 |
| 1. FC Köln | 14 | 4 | 4 | 5.8 | −1.8 | 2.24 | 2.17 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →