1. FC Köln vs RB Leipzig: match prediction
1. FC KölnVS
RB LeipzigThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win37%1. FC Köln
Draw22%
Away win41%RB Leipzig
Expected points, home1.34
What to expect
No clear favourite: 37% home, 22% draw, 41% away. Attack against defence: RB Leipzig should create more, 2.04 expected goals a match against 1.73. 1. FC Köln are 5.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln | 15 | 9 | 9 | 14.0 | −5.0 | 1.75 | 1.56 |
| RB Leipzig | 4 | 9 | 18 | 17.4 | +0.6 | 2.52 | 1.70 |
Recent matches
FC Cologne — 
Bayer Leverkusen 1:2
Union Berlin — FC Cologne 1:1FC Cologne — 
Schalke 04 0:0
Eintracht Frankfurt — FC Cologne 1:0FC Cologne — 
Borussia M.Gladbach 2:1RasenBallsport Leipzig — 
Augsburg 5:2Schalke 04 — RasenBallsport Leipzig 0:2RasenBallsport Leipzig — 
Elversberg 4:0
Bayern Munich — RasenBallsport Leipzig 6:1RasenBallsport Leipzig — Eintracht Frankfurt 6:0Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table → · Bundesliga: next round predictions