The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Paderborn: 42% against 32%. Attack against defence: level, 1.67 and 1.68 expected goals a match.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 1.09 | 2.13 |
| Schalke 04 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 5.1 | −0.1 | 1.23 | 2.24 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.
All Bundesliga matches with xG → · Full Bundesliga xPTS table →