Arsenal vs Manchester City: match prediction
ArsenalVS
Manchester CityThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win43%Arsenal
Draw25%
Away win32%Manchester City
Expected points, home1.53
What to expect
A slight edge to Arsenal: 43% against 32%. Attack against defence: Manchester City should create more, 1.65 expected goals a match against 1.47. Read the table with care: Arsenal have taken 8.0 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1 | 10 | 27 | 19.0 | +8.0 | 1.69 | 0.97 |
| Manchester City | 3 | 10 | 21 | 20.9 | +0.1 | 2.32 | 1.25 |
Recent matches
Arsenal — 
Hull 1:0
Liverpool — Arsenal 0:1Arsenal — 
Everton 2:0
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal 0:1Arsenal — 
Leeds 2:1Nottingham Forest — Manchester City 3:1Manchester City — 
Brighton 0:1
Aston Villa — Manchester City 2:1Manchester City — 
Ipswich 3:2Liverpool — Manchester City 0:3Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions