The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Everton: 46% against 31%. Attack against defence: Everton should create more, 1.73 expected goals a match against 1.39. Read the table with care: Aston Villa have taken 2.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 9 | 8 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | 1.20 | 1.92 |
| Everton | 11 | 8 | 10 | 10.8 | −0.8 | 1.55 | 1.58 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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