The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Brighton are favourites: 79% to win against 9%. Attack against defence: Brighton should create more, 2.13 expected goals a match against 1.34. Read the table with care: Brighton have taken 2.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 3 | 7 | 16 | 13.8 | +2.2 | 2.40 | 1.45 |
| Newcastle United | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 1.24 | 1.87 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.