The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Everton are favourites: 65% to win against 14%. Attack against defence: Everton should create more, 1.69 expected goals a match against 1.22. Coventry City are 1.6 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| Coventry City | 18 | 5 | 3 | 4.5 | −1.6 | 1.00 | 1.72 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.