The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 43% home, 23% draw, 35% away. Attack against defence: Aston Villa should create more, 1.78 expected goals a match against 1.63. Read the table with care: Ipswich Town have taken 2.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | 1.39 | 2.30 |
| Aston Villa | 12 | 7 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | 1.27 | 1.87 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.