The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Bournemouth: 48% against 29%. Attack against defence: Bournemouth should create more, 1.84 expected goals a match against 1.41. Bournemouth are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | 11 | 5 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 1.42 | 2.06 |
| Bournemouth | 17 | 5 | 3 | 7.8 | −4.8 | 1.62 | 1.40 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.