Manchester City vs Chelsea: match prediction
Manchester CityVS
ChelseaThe match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Home win73%Manchester City
Draw15%
Away win12%Chelsea
Expected points, home2.35
What to expect
Manchester City are favourites: 73% to win against 12%. Attack against defence: Manchester City should create more, 2.04 expected goals a match against 1.41. Read the table with care: Chelsea have taken 3.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
How they arrive
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 3 | 10 | 21 | 20.9 | +0.1 | 2.32 | 1.25 |
| Chelsea | 5 | 10 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | 1.57 | 1.75 |
Recent matches
Nottingham Forest — Manchester City 3:1Manchester City — 
Brighton 0:1
Aston Villa — Manchester City 2:1Manchester City — 
Ipswich 3:2
Liverpool — Manchester City 0:3
Sunderland — Chelsea 1:0Chelsea — 
Manchester United 2:0Chelsea — 
Tottenham 0:2
Everton — Chelsea 0:2Chelsea — 
Bournemouth 5:1Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table → · EPL: next round predictions