The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Manchester United: 45% against 32%. Attack against defence: Manchester United should create more, 1.78 expected goals a match against 1.45. Read the table with care: Newcastle United have taken 3.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 8 | 8 | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | 1.25 | 1.89 |
| Manchester United | 16 | 8 | 7 | 10.3 | −3.3 | 1.67 | 1.65 |
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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