The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Toulouse are favourites: 71% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Toulouse should create more, 2.02 expected goals a match against 1.48. Toulouse are 4.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 13 | 5 | 5 | 8.9 | −4.0 | 2.12 | 1.66 |
| Strasbourg | 8 | 5 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | 1.29 | 1.92 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.