Pitch Radar

CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moscow: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 10 · 10 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win87%CSKA Moscow
Draw9%
Away win4%Rodina Moscow
Expected points, home2.70

What to expect

CSKA Moscow are favourites: 87% to win against 4%. Attack against defence: CSKA Moscow should create more, 1.93 expected goals a match against 0.98. Read the table with care: CSKA Moscow have taken 3.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
CSKA Moscow491915.9+3.11.651.19
Rodina Moscow15955.2−0.10.772.20

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →